Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

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Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

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AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Urban Advocates Say New Gun Control Talk Overdue

For years, voices have cried in the urban wilderness: We need to talk about gun control.

Yet the guns blazed on.

It took a small-town slaughter for gun control to become a political priority. Now, decades' worth of big-city arguments against easy access to guns are finally being heard, because an unstable young man invaded an elementary school in Newtown, Conn., with a military-style assault rifle and 30-bullet magazines. Twenty young children and six adults were slain.

President Barack Obama called the tragedy a "wake-up call." Vice President Joe Biden met Thursday with Obama's cabinet and law-enforcement officers from around the country to launch a task force on reducing gun violence. Lawmakers who have long resisted gun control are saying something must be done.

Such action is energizing those who have sought to reduce urban gun violence. Donations are up in some places; other leaders have been working overtime due to this unprecedented moment.

The moment also is causing some to reflect on the sudden change of heart. Why now? Why weren't we moved to act by the killing of so many other children, albeit one by one, in urban areas?

Certainly, Newtown is a special case, 6- and 7-year-olds riddled with bullets inside the sanctuary of a classroom. Even in a nation rife with violence, where there have been three other mass slayings since July and millions enjoy virtual killing via video games, the nature of this tragedy is shocking.

Critics Slam NRA for Proposing Armed School Guards Watch Video

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But still: "There's a lot of talk now about we have to protect our children. We have to protect all of our children, not just the ones living in the suburbs," said Tammerlin Drummond, a columnist for the Oakland Tribune.

In her column Monday, Drummond wrote about 7-year-old Heaven Sutton of Chicago, who was standing next to her mother selling candy when she was killed in the crossfire of a gang shootout. Also in Chicago, which has been plagued by a recent spike in gun violence: 6-year-old Aaliyah Shell was caught in a drive-by while standing on her front porch; and 13-year-old Tyquan Tyler was killed when a someone in a car shot into a group of youths outside a party.

Wrote Drummond: "It has taken the murders of 20 babies and six adults in an upper-middle class neighborhood in Connecticut to achieve what thousands of gun fatalities in urban communities all over this country could not."

So again: What took so long? The answers are complicated by many factors: resignation to urban violence, even among some of those who live there; the assumption that cities are dangerous and small towns safe; the idea that some urban victims place themselves in harm's way.

In March, the Children's Defense Fund issued a report titled "Protect Children, Not Guns 2012." It analyzed the latest federal data and counted 299 children under age 10 killed by guns in 2008 and 2009. That figure included 173 preschool-age children.

Black children and teens accounted for 45 percent of all child and teen gun deaths, even though they were only 15 percent of the child/teen population.

"Every child's life is sacred and it is long past time that we protect it," said CDF president Marian Wright Edelman in the report.

It got almost no press coverage — until nine months later, when Newtown happened.

Tim Stevens, founder and chairman of the Black Political Empowerment Project in Pittsburgh, has been focusing on urban gun violence since 2007, when he said Pennsylvania was declared the worst state for black-on-black violence.

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No new vote in Venezuela if Chavez sworn in late: official

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela will not call fresh elections if Hugo Chavez's cancer prevents him from taking office by January 10, the head of Congress said on Saturday, despite a constitutional mandate that the swearing-in take place on that date.

Chavez is recovering in Cuba from a six-hour cancer operation that followed his October re-election. The socialist leader has not been heard from for nearly two weeks, raising doubts as to whether he will be fit to continue governing.

Opposition leaders may pounce on the issue of the swearing-in date to demand that authorities call fresh elections because of Chavez's apparently critical state of health due to an undisclosed type of cancer in the pelvic region.

A constitutional dispute over succession could lead to a messy transition toward a post-Chavez era in the South American nation with the world's largest oil reserves.

"Since Chavez might not be here in on January 10, (the opposition) hopes the National Assembly will call elections within 30 days. They're wrong. Dead wrong," said Diosdado Cabello, the National Assembly's president and one of Chavez's closest allies, during a ceremony to swear in a recently elected governor.

"That's not going to happen because our president is named Hugo Chavez, he was reelected and is in the hearts of all Venezuelans."

He suggested Chavez may need more time to recover from his surgery. Officials in recent weeks have recognized his condition was serious, and the garrulous leader's unusual silence has built up alarm even among supporters.

The constitution says "the elected candidate will assume the Presidency of the Republic on January 10th of the first year of their constitutional term, via swearing-in by the National Assembly."

It says new elections are to be called if the National Assembly determines a "complete absence" of the president because of death, physical or mental impairment or abandoning the job.

The opposition believes it would have a better shot against Chavez's anointed successor, Vice President Nicolas Maduro, than against the charismatic former soldier who for 14 years has been nearly invincible at the ballot box.

Chavez allies want to avoid a public debate over the president's health because his cancer has been treated as a state secret. His treatment in communist Cuba has helped keep his condition under wraps, and the Venezuelan government has given only terse and cryptic statements about his post-operation recovery.

Constitutional lawyer Jose Vice Harold said he expects the Supreme Court, which is controlled by Chavez allies, will rule that Chavez may extend his existing term without having to be sworn in with the expectation that he will eventually recover.

"What they are doing is taking the debate over succession from the National Assembly, which is where it belongs, and moving it to the Supreme Court where behind closed doors they can decide the next steps are," said Harold, a Chavez critic and constitutional law professor as the Universidad Catholic Andres Bellow.

Chavez has vastly expanded presidential powers and built a near-cult following among millions of poor Venezuelans, who love his feisty language and oil-financed social welfare projects.

Opposition leaders are smarting from this month's governors elections in which Chavez allies won 20 of 23 states. They are trying to keep attention focused on day-to-day problems from rampant crime to power outages.

(Reporting by Brian Ellsworth; Editing by Paul Simao)

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Strong 6.8 quake strikes off Vanuatu: USGS

SYDNEY: A strong 6.8-magnitude earthquake hit off the coast of the South Pacific island of Vanuatu on Saturday, the US Geological Survey said, but no immediate tsunami warning was issued.

The quake struck at a depth of more than 200 kilometres around 2230 GMT Friday some 130 kilometres north of Santo, USGS said.

"It's quite deep ... so there's no tsunami," said David Jepsen, a seismologist with Geoscience Australia which measured the quake at 6.6 magnitude.

"I think it's well away from (the capital) Port Vila... but it's closer to some of the islands further to the northwest, but they would have had some moderate shaking really," he told AFP.

The Hawaii-based Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said a destructive tsunami was not generated, based on the earthquake and historical tsunami data.

Vanuatu lies on the so-called "Pacific Ring of Fire", a zone of frequent seismic activity caused by friction between shifting tectonic plates.

It has been rocked by several large quakes in recent years, averaging about three magnitude 7.0 or above incidents every year without any major damage.

- AFP/jc

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Enormous impact of Food Security Bill on farm sector: Panel

NEW DELHI: The National Food Security Bill (NFSB), in its present form, throws up major operational and financial challenges and would have enormous ramifications on the cereal economy, markets and the farm sector, a government paper has said.

The discussion paper by the commission for agricultural costs and prices (CACP) said the long-term feasibility of the strategy under NFSB needed to be carefully analyzed and debated in the national interest.

The CACP is an entity under the ministry of agriculture which advises the government on price policy for major farm commodities.

The paper comes at a time when Congress president Sonia Gandhi has said that the food security bill would be brought to Parliament soon.

"It is imperative that a holistic approach is adopted while analyzing the entire system of food production, food procurement and distribution of food for achieving food security on sustainable basis," the paper authored by CACP chairman Ashok Gulati and six others drawn from various fields including CACP said.

The authors said the discussion paper series by CACP was an attempt to encourage unbiased discussion on critical issues affecting the agricultural sector and food security. However, they made it clear that the views belonged purely to the authors and did not reflect the views of the organizations they belonged to.

The paper said it was important to ensure adequate availability of grain with the public authorities to fulfill the underlying obligation in the bill.

"Given the current trends and volatility in rates of growth in food grain production and yields, the growing pressures on land and water in the wake of climate change, dependence on monsoon rains — there is a possibility that food grain availability on sustainable and stable basis would require lot of government intervention in augmenting production, enhancing procurement, and stocking large amounts of grains to meet the commitments of food distribution," the paper said, adding that this may have several undesirable side effects.

It said that any further procurement by the state would crowd out private sector operations and this would have an adverse effect on overall efficiency of procurement and storage operations, as well as on magnitude of food subsidies and open market prices.

The government already procures one-third of the cereals production (which amounts to almost half of marketed surplus of wheat and rice).

"This would also slow down or even regress the process of overall diversification in agriculture, and go contrary to the emerging demand patterns in the country," the paper said, referring to any fresh increase in procurement.

It said the food subsidy in coming years will balloon due to the lower central issue price of grain, a significant rise in the number of entitled beneficiaries and the need to keep raising the minimum support price (MSP) to cover the rising costs of production and to incentivize farmers to increase production of cereals.

The document said the existing food security complex of procurement, stocking and distribution would further expand and increase the operational expenditure of the scheme given its creaking infrastructure, leakages (which amount to about 40%) and inefficient governance.

"This raises not only the issue of sustainability of the financial obligations entailed in NFSB, but also its efficacy in trying to extend food security," the paper said.

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AP IMPACT: Big Pharma cashes in on HGH abuse

A federal crackdown on illicit foreign supplies of human growth hormone has failed to stop rampant misuse, and instead has driven record sales of the drug by some of the world's biggest pharmaceutical companies, an Associated Press investigation shows.

The crackdown, which began in 2006, reduced the illegal flow of unregulated supplies from China, India and Mexico.

But since then, Big Pharma has been satisfying the steady desires of U.S. users and abusers, including many who take the drug in the false hope of delaying the effects of aging.

From 2005 to 2011, inflation-adjusted sales of HGH were up 69 percent, according to an AP analysis of pharmaceutical company data collected by the research firm IMS Health. Sales of the average prescription drug rose just 12 percent in that same period.

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EDITOR'S NOTE — Whether for athletics or age, Americans from teenagers to baby boomers are trying to get an edge by illegally using anabolic steroids and human growth hormone, despite well-documented risks. This is the second of a two-part series.

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Unlike other prescription drugs, HGH may be prescribed only for specific uses. U.S. sales are limited by law to treat a rare growth defect in children and a handful of uncommon conditions like short bowel syndrome or Prader-Willi syndrome, a congenital disease that causes reduced muscle tone and a lack of hormones in sex glands.

The AP analysis, supplemented by interviews with experts, shows too many sales and too many prescriptions for the number of people known to be suffering from those ailments. At least half of last year's sales likely went to patients not legally allowed to get the drug. And U.S. pharmacies processed nearly double the expected number of prescriptions.

Peddled as an elixir of life capable of turning middle-aged bodies into lean machines, HGH — a synthesized form of the growth hormone made naturally by the human pituitary gland — winds up in the eager hands of affluent, aging users who hope to slow or even reverse the aging process.

Experts say these folks don't need the drug, and may be harmed by it. The supposed fountain-of-youth medicine can cause enlargement of breast tissue, carpal tunnel syndrome and swelling of hands and feet. Ironically, it also can contribute to aging ailments like heart disease and Type 2 diabetes.

Others in the medical establishment also are taking a fat piece of the profits — doctors who fudge prescriptions, as well as pharmacists and distributors who are content to look the other way. HGH also is sold directly without prescriptions, as new-age snake oil, to patients at anti-aging clinics that operate more like automated drug mills.

Years of raids, sports scandals and media attention haven't stopped major drugmakers from selling a whopping $1.4 billion worth of HGH in the U.S. last year. That's more than industry-wide annual gross sales for penicillin or prescription allergy medicine. Anti-aging HGH regimens vary greatly, with a yearly cost typically ranging from $6,000 to $12,000 for three to six self-injections per week.

Across the U.S., the medication is often dispensed through prescriptions based on improper diagnoses, carefully crafted to exploit wiggle room in the law restricting use of HGH, the AP found.

HGH is often promoted on the Internet with the same kind of before-and-after photos found in miracle diet ads, along with wildly hyped claims of rapid muscle growth, loss of fat, greater vigor, and other exaggerated benefits to adults far beyond their physical prime. Sales also are driven by the personal endorsement of celebrities such as actress Suzanne Somers.

Pharmacies that once risked prosecution for using unauthorized, foreign HGH — improperly labeled as raw pharmaceutical ingredients and smuggled across the border — now simply dispense name brands, often for the same banned uses. And usually with impunity.

Eight companies have been granted permission to market HGH by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, which reviews the benefits and risks of new drug products. By contrast, three companies are approved for the diabetes drug insulin.

The No. 1 maker, Roche subsidiary Genentech, had nearly $400 million in HGH sales in the U.S. last year, up an inflation-adjusted two-thirds from 2005. Pfizer and Eli Lilly were second and third with $300 million and $220 million in sales, respectively, according to IMS Health. Pfizer now gets more revenue from its HGH brand, Genotropin, than from Zoloft, its well-known depression medicine that lost patent protection.

On their face, the numbers make no sense to the recognized hormone doctors known as endocrinologists who provide legitimate HGH treatment to a small number of patients.

Endocrinologists estimate there are fewer than 45,000 U.S. patients who might legitimately take HGH. They would be expected to use roughly 180,000 prescriptions or refills each year, given that typical patients get three months' worth of HGH at a time, according to doctors and distributors.

Yet U.S. pharmacies last year supplied almost twice that much HGH — 340,000 orders — according to AP's analysis of IMS Health data.

While doctors say more than 90 percent of legitimate patients are children with stunted growth, 40 percent of 442 U.S. side-effect cases tied to HGH over the last year involved people age 18 or older, according to an AP analysis of FDA data. The average adult's age in those cases was 53, far beyond the prime age for sports. The oldest patients were in their 80s.

Some of these medical records even give explicit hints of use to combat aging, justifying treatment with reasons like fatigue, bone thinning and "off-label," which means treatment of an unapproved condition

Even Medicare, the government health program for older Americans, allowed 22,169 HGH prescriptions in 2010, a five-year increase of 78 percent, according to data released by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in response to an AP public records request.

"There's no question: a lot gets out," said hormone specialist Dr. Mark Molitch of Northwestern University, who helped write medical standards meant to limit HGH treatment to legitimate patients.

And those figures don't include HGH sold directly by doctors without prescriptions at scores of anti-aging medical practices and clinics around the country. Those numbers could only be tallied by drug makers, who have declined to say how many patients they supply and for what conditions.

First marketed in 1985 for children with stunted growth, HGH was soon misappropriated by adults intent on exploiting its modest muscle- and bone-building qualities. Congress limited HGH distribution to the handful of rare conditions in an extraordinary 1990 law, overriding the generally unrestricted right of doctors to prescribe medicines as they see fit.

Despite the law, illicit HGH spread around the sports world in the 1990s, making deep inroads into bodybuilding, college athletics, and professional leagues from baseball to cycling. The even larger banned market among older adults has flourished more recently.

FDA regulations ban the sale of HGH as an anti-aging drug. In fact, since 1990, prescribing it for things like weight loss and strength conditioning has been punishable by 5 to 10 years in prison.

Steve Kleppe, of Scottsdale, Ariz., a restaurant entrepreneur who has taken HGH for almost 15 years to keep feeling young, said he noticed a price jump of about 25 percent after the block on imports. He now buys HGH directly from a doctor at an annual cost of about $8,000 for himself and the same amount for his wife.

Many older patients go for HGH treatment to scores of anti-aging practices and clinics heavily concentrated in retirement states like Florida, Nevada, Arizona and California.

These sites are affiliated with hundreds of doctors who are rarely endocrinologists. Instead, many tout certification by the American Board of Anti-Aging and Regenerative Medicine, though the medical establishment does not recognize the group's bona fides.

The clinics offer personalized programs of "age management" to business executives, affluent retirees, and other patients of means, sometimes coupled with the amenities of a vacation resort. The operations insist there are few, if any, side effects from HGH. Mainstream medical authorities say otherwise.

A 2007 review of 31 medical studies showed swelling in half of HGH patients, with joint pain or diabetes in more than a fifth. A French study of about 7,000 people who took HGH as children found a 30 percent higher risk of death from causes like bone tumors and stroke, stirring a health advisory from U.S. authorities.

For proof that the drug works, marketers turn to images like the memorable one of pot-bellied septuagenarian Dr. Jeffry Life, supposedly transformed into a ripped hulk of himself by his own program available at the upscale Las Vegas-based Cenegenics Elite Health. (He declined to be interviewed.)

These promoters of HGH say there is a connection between the drop-off in growth hormone levels through adulthood and the physical decline that begins in late middle age. Replace the hormone, they say, and the aging process slows.

"It's an easy ruse. People equate hormones with youth," said Dr. Tom Perls, a leading industry critic who does aging research at Boston University. "It's a marketing dream come true."

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Associated Press Writer David B. Caruso reported from New York and AP National Writer Jeff Donn reported from Plymouth, Mass. AP Writer Troy Thibodeaux provided data analysis assistance from New Orleans.

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AP's interactive on the HGH investigation: http://hosted.ap.org/interactives/2012/hgh

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The AP National Investigative Team can be reached at investigate(at)ap.org

EDITOR'S NOTE _ Whether for athletics or age, Americans from teenagers to baby boomers are trying to get an edge by illegally using anabolic steroids and human growth hormone, despite well-documented risks. This is the second of a two-part series.

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Obama Says He Is 'Ready and Willing' to Get Deal

President Barack Obama says he is "ready and willing" to get a big package done to deal with the "fiscal cliff" and says there's no reason not to protect middle-class Americans from tax increases.

Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

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Obama says he spoke Friday with House Speaker John Boehner and met with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. He says Congress should pass a plan to extend tax breaks for the middle class and extend unemployment benefits.

Obama says no one can get 100 percent of what they want and there are "real consequences" to how they deal with the across-the-board tax increases and steep spending cuts scheduled to kick in Jan. 1. Economists fear the combination could deliver a blow to the U.S. economy.

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Italy PM Monti resigns, elections likely in February

ROME (Reuters) - Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti tendered his resignation to the president on Friday after 13 months in office, opening the way to a highly uncertain national election in February.

The former European commissioner, appointed to lead an unelected government to save Italy from financial crisis a year ago, has kept his own political plans a closely guarded secret but he has faced growing pressure to seek a second term.

President Giorgio Napolitano is expected to dissolve parliament in the next few days and has already indicated that the most likely date for the election is February 24.

In an unexpected move, Napolitano said he would hold consultations with political leaders from all the main parties on Saturday to discuss the next steps. In the meantime Monti will continue in a caretaker capacity.

European leaders including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso have called for Monti's economic reform agenda to continue but Italy's two main parties have said he should stay out of the race.

Monti, who handed in his resignation during a brief meeting at the presidential palace shortly after parliament approved his government's 2013 budget, will hold a news conference on Sunday at which he is expected clarify his intentions.

Ordinary Italians are weary of repeated tax hikes and spending cuts and opinion polls offer little evidence that they are ready to give Monti a second term. A survey this week showed 61 percent saying he should not stand.

Whether he runs or not, his legacy will loom over an election which will be fought out over the painful measures he has introduced to try to rein in Italy's huge public debt and revive its stagnant economy.

His resignation came a couple of months before the end of his term, after his technocrat government lost the support of Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right People of Freedom (PDL) party in parliament earlier this month.

Speculation is swirling over Monti's next moves. These could include outlining policy recommendations, endorsing a centrist alliance committed to his reform agenda or even standing as a candidate in the election himself.

The centre-left Democratic Party (PD) has held a strong lead in the polls for months but a centrist alliance led by Monti could gain enough support in the Senate to force the PD to seek a coalition deal which could help shape the economic agenda.

BERLUSCONI IN WINGS

Senior figures from the alliance, including both the UDC party, which is close to the Roman Catholic Church, and a new group founded by Ferrari sports car chairman Luca di Montezemolo, have been hoping to gain Monti's backing.

He has not said clearly whether he intends to run, but he has dropped heavy hints he will continue to push a reform agenda that has the backing of both Italy's business community and its European partners.

The PD has promised to stick to the deficit reduction targets Monti has agreed with the European Union and says it will maintain the broad course he has set while putting more emphasis on reviving growth.

Berlusconi's return to the political arena has added to the already considerable uncertainty about the centre-right's intentions and increased the likelihood of a messy and potentially bitter election campaign.

The billionaire media tycoon has fluctuated between attacking the government's "Germano-centric" austerity policies and promising to stand aside if Monti agrees to lead the centre right, but now appears to have settled on an anti-Monti line.

He has pledged to cut taxes and scrap a hated housing tax which Monti imposed. He has also sounded a stridently anti-German line which has at times echoed the tone of the populist 5-Star Movement headed by maverick comic Beppe Grillo.

The PD and the PDL, both of which supported Monti's technocrat government in parliament, have made it clear they would not be happy if he ran against them and there have been foretastes of the kind of attacks he can expect.

Former centre-left prime minister Massimo D'Alema said in an interview last week that it would be "morally questionable" for Monti to run against the PD, which backed all of his reforms and which has pledged to maintain his pledges to European partners.

Berlusconi who has mounted an intensive media campaign in the past few days, echoed that criticism this week, saying Monti risked losing the credibility he has won over the past year and becoming a "little political figure".

(Additional reporting by Gavin Jones, Massimiliano Di Giorgio and Paolo Biondi; Writing by Gavin Jones and James Mackenzie; Editing by Michael Roddy)

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Dollar steady as investors await fiscal cliff sign

WASHINGTON: The dollar lost a little bit of ground against the euro and was largely flat against the yen in quiet trade on Thursday as investors awaited a clear sign from US "fiscal cliff" talks.

The euro stood at $1.3241 towards 2200 GMT, up from $1.3226 late Wednesday. It also rose against the Japanese yen, reaching 111.72 yen compared to 111.59 yen a day earlier.

The dollar held steady against the yen, after reaching its highest level against the currency since April 2011 on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the greenback edged lower to 84.38 yen towards 2200 GMT from 84.39 yen a day earlier.

Japan's central bank unveiled more huge monetary easing earlier on Thursday in the wake of a weekend election won by the Liberal Democratic Party.

With an end-of-year deadline approaching, the markets are watching whether Washington can avert the so-called fiscal cliff, a mix of tax hikes and spending cuts set to take effect in January that could plunge the world's biggest economy back into recession.

Analysts said remarks by top Republican John Boehner had sparked slight optimism, increasing investors' appetite for risk, for the euro among other things.

Talks between President Barack Obama and Boehner on averting the "fiscal cliff" have stalled amid accusations of political grandstanding on both sides.

In other currencies, the dollar slipped to 0.9115 Swiss francs, while the pound rose to $1.6280.

- AFP/fa

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Kerala high court permits naval guards to visit Italy for Christmas

KOCHI: The Kerala high court on Thursday allowed the two Italian naval guards, accused of fatally shooting two Indian fishermen close to the coast in the Arabian Sea on February 15, to visit Italy to be with their families for Christmas on a bank guarantee of Rs 6 crore (around $1.1 million). The shooting had triggered a major diplomatic stand-off between Indian and Italy, with the police beginning a murder inquiry against the two sailors who were part of the crew of oil tanker, MV Enrica Lexie.

Justice P Bhavadasan, who considered the petition by Massimiliano Latorre and Salvatore Girone, held that it would be improper of the court to reject their petition after the Central government informed the court that undertakings given by the Italian ambassador and consul general may be given due consideration.

Italy's ambassador to India Giacomo Sanfelice and consul general Giampaolo Cutillo had provided sworn affidavits ensuring return of the naval guards after a two-week visit to Italy. The government also gave a letter to the court from the foreign minister of Italy, certifying that the two officials were authorized to provide such an undertaking.

Allowing the petition, the court held: "Denial of relief to the petitioners is easy. But this court must remind itself of the whole issue. If the Union of India is of the view that after considering the various aspects and interests involved, the undertakings given to this court are sufficient guarantee to ensure that the petitioners will return to India as directed by this court, it may not be proper for this court to hold otherwise."

Dismissing the state government's contention that the motive of the petitioners was suspect, the court noted that it is for the Union of India to consider the acceptability and reliability of the undertakings and it will not be proper for the court to impose its view as those aspects fall within the realm of executive function. The case is not just regarding the presence of the naval guards for trial but, crucially, the relationship between two nations, the judge observed.

The court has asked the Italian government to furnish a bank guarantee of Rs 6 crore and as well as provide undertakings by the ambassador and consul general to ensure return of the naval guards on January 10 next year. The court also asked the Centre to issue the necessary travel documents if the undertakings were satisfactory to them.

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